Melbourne’s population will as big as London’s is today - in just four decades. Source: News Corp Australia
- Melbourne’s population to swell to almost 8 million
- Geelong will be home to almost 500,000
- Is Victoria set up to cope? Scroll down to have your say
MELBOURNE will need to build an extra 720,000 homes over the next 20 years to help accommodate six million people, according to the latest official projections.
Regional cities such as Ballarat and Bendigo will be home to about 200,000 people each by 2031.
Continuing high immigration and solid birthrates could see Melbourne’s numbers rise from 4.3 million now to six million in 2031 and almost eight million by 2051, says the Napthine Government report Victoria in Future 2014.
Melbourne’s population just keeps going up and up. Source: News Limited
That will make Melbourne as big as London city proper is today, home to an estimated 8.03 million people.
Other cities of similar size right now are Hong Kong (7.2m), Hanoi (6.8m), Bangkok (8.2m), New York City (8.4m) and Ho Chi Minh City (7.6m).
The City of Wyndham on the city’s western fringe will have the largest growth, adding 200,000 to reach 367,500 people by 2031, while Casey in the southeast is expected to grow by 171,000 to 432,000, Whittlesea by 160,000 to 320,600 and Melton by 142,000 to 255,000.
From the Victoria in Future 2014 report. Source: Supplied
A predicted continuing apartment boom could see the City of Melbourne’s population more than double to 218,000, with an astonishing 110,000 dwellings in the central city within 20 years.
Planning Minister Matthew Guy said the forecasts had been revised given currently high migration and fertility rates.
“Since the early 1970s, our fertility rate has been falling and the number of children born every year has remained virtually unchanged,” he said.
“But now that’s turned around, with twice as many babies expected to be born in 2050 than in 2000.”
From the Victoria in Future 2014 report. Source: Supplied
However, Bob Birrell, from Monash University’s Centre for Population and Urban Research, said the projections were fanciful because they were based on the continuation of unsustainable growth rates experienced during the recent mining boom.
Dr Birrell said that if the forecasts turned out to be right, there would be huge implications for the government’s urban blueprint Plan Melbourne.
“The deluge of people that these projections suggest indicate that even with high growth in the inner city and continued growth in outer suburbia, established suburbia is going to cop a major impact,” he said.
Melbourne’s urban sprawl heads east. Source: News Limited
Of the 720,000 extra homes needed in Melbourne up to 2031, established suburban areas such as Moreland will require 24,000, Maribyrnong 19,000, Port Phillip 18,000, Yarra 16,000 and Moonee Valley 14,000.
The report said that by 2031, greater Geelong will have 351,000 people, greater Ballarat 205,000, greater Bendigo 194,000 and greater Shepparton 151,000.
By 2051, it’s expected that life expectancy at birth will reach 90 years for females and 87.6 years for males.
HOW VICTORIA WILL GROW
Population in 2011 / 2031 / 2051
Melbourne: 4.17m / 5.96m / 7.82m
Greater Geelong: 256,600 / 351,700 / 455,900
Greater Ballarat: 148,700 / 205,400 / 266,400
Greater Bendigo: 142,700 / 193,900 / 249,600
Greater Shepparton: 127,000 / 150,900 / 181,300
john.masanauskas@news.com.au
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