For most of the Melbourne Cup's 152-year history, the Caulfield Cup has proven to be the best form guide into the race that stops a nation on the first Tuesday in November.
And in recent years despite its lowly Group Three status, the $300,000 Geelong Cup (2400m) - which will be run this Wednesday - has become almost as important a lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup.
But after the running of Saturday's $2.5 million Caulfield Cup and with a surprisingly weak field of just 10 runners set to contest the 2013 Geelong Cup, it seems increasingly likely punters will have to look in a different direction to find this year's Melbourne Cup winner.
And that direction is either Saturday's $3 million Cox Plate - Australia's weight-for-age championship over 2040m at Moonee Valley - or amongst the host of international raiders being set specifically for this year's Melbourne Cup that are yet to race in Australia.
Of the 18 horses that contested Saturday's Caulfield Cup, surely only the first seven home in Fawkner, Dandino, Dear Demi, Jet Away, Royal Descent, Mr Moet and Hawkspur are now realistic Melbourne Cup contenders.
But Fawkner, who is bred more along on sprinter/mile bloodlines, must surely be a distance doubt at 3200m, particularly after receiving a 1.5kg weight penalty for his Caulfield Cup win - which takes his weight to 54.5kg for the Melbourne Cup.
In fact Fawkner is probably not even the best chance from the seven strong team of leviathan owner Lloyd Williams that could contest this year's race - headed by last year's winner Green Moon, Metropolitan winner Seville and highly-rated import Sea Moon.
All three are likely to run in Saturday's Cox Plate along with Australia's other two top Melbourne Cup hopes in last year's runner-up - the Gai Waterhouse-trained Fiorente - and recently-displaced Cup favourite in Darren Weir's exciting grey Puissance De Lune.
As for the beaten Caulfield Cup brigade, runner-up Dandino was superb from barrier 16 and surely the best chance out of Saturday's race from a Melbourne Cup perspective.
Jet Away, after covering an enormous amount of ground to run an unlucky fourth, was the other eye-catcher but will he be able to recover from such a gut-busting run.
Mares Dear Demi and Royal Descent were brave but not guaranteed to be good enough to beat the Cox Plate horses and international raiders in the Melbourne Cup while beaten Caulfield Cup favourite Hawkspur will have to improve significantly if he is to triumph on the first Tuesday in November.
In recent years internationals Media Puzzle (2002), Americain (2010) and Dunaden (2011) all won the Geelong Cup at their first starts and then went on to win the Melbourne Cup but the only foreign raider contesting this year's race on Wednesday is nine-year-old English gelding Forgotten Voice.
So instead it is the Cox Plate - which supplied the winner of last year's Melbourne Cup in Green Moon after he ran unplaced as favourite in that event - which looks set to be the most important lead-up race for this year's Melbourne Cup.
But given the increasing domination of foreign horses in the spring carnival, this year's Melbourne Cup winner may not race in Australia this spring until the big day itself with a host of top contenders looming amongst this year's raiders.
They include 2011 Melbourne Cup winner and runner-up in Dunaden and Red Cadeaux respectively, the Luca Cumani-trained Mount Athos - an unlucky fifth in last year's Melbourne Cup, Gai Waterhouse's Group Two-winning French colt Tres Blues, the Aga Khan's Verema, English stallion Brown Panther - part-owned by soccer star Michael Owen - and Mike Moroney's recently-acquired Irish St Leger winner Voleuse De Coeurs.
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